Flash from the past – my fourth financial comic strip

Okay, as you can see below, this strip was done around Christmas with Mr. Penny waiting in line to communicate to Santa his present list for Christmas. Mr Penny’s look is starting to evolve a little, I think the drawing of him below might be one of my best versions. The initial thought was to make the reader wonder what he is doing, with the reveal at the last strip box.

As I’ve said before, it was fun to do, but took too much time to draw. Probably if I kept with it, I would have eventually mastered the speed aspect and today it would be quickly done.

To see the actual comic strip, click on this -> Mr. Penny is making a list!

Memories… lol

Have a great week!

Don

The Morality Rate of the Coronavirus (covid-19) is much less than you Think

Update 3/27/2020, US just now confirmed they have more cases than China, but probably because the US has done more testing than China… People freak out because of “new” cases, but really it’s just that we’ve tested more, so more people are detected. Still, I wish the US would do more like suggesting to citizens that they wear masks and test and approve meds more quickly for usage.

I’ve heard people say that the mortality rate of the coronavirus (covid-19 virus) is somewhere between 3 and 4%. They say that the mortality rate of coronavirus is much worse than the 1918 influenza Pandemic (also called the Spanish Flu). This claim is incorrect, sort of. I’ll explain why I believe that the impact will be well less than 1% and while concerning, not as bad as the media will have you believe.

Let me start by saying that the dataset from the Spanish Flu is weak. I’ve seen worldwide mortality rates anywhere from .6% to 3%. The CDC put the worldwide mortality rate at 1% (50m out of 500m), and estimate the US mortality rate was .5% to .65% of the entire us population.

First, the true mortality rate of the coronavirus vs US entire population should be less than .5% (1 in 200)

The United States is still developing its coronavirus datasets, but we missed the first cases so we are not starting from the beginning. I’m sure there were thousands of people that had the virus and beat it before anyone had any idea what it was. I’m sure most people that had it just thought it was the flu. I know a paramedic that has talked to healthcare people (mainly nurses and few doctors) and they said that they had a high number of people come into the hospital last year, believing they had the flu, but they tested negative (meaning they didn’t have the flu) after testing was applied. So the US and the entire world is not starting at square one with this virus.

I believe the Chinese statistics that they have provided the world (literally, thank China for the data)! Looking at the Chinese datasets, and making postulations from their data metrics versus their entire population, the Chinese mortality rate could be significantly less than .1% for their 2020 year! To be totally honest, when I number crunch their data, I’m getting a mortality ratio that is between .001% and .002% for the Chinese entire population in 2020, but that’s pretty optimistic… but possible. This number is a far cry from the mortality rate of the Spanish Flu.

So the US could have numbers even better than China, but it will be close. China today is not China of 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago). They have made incredible progress in all areas. So, the US mortality rate versus the entire US population could be less than .1% too, and maybe much less. So we will not have a mortality rate higher than the Spanish Flu, and most likely will have a mortality rate much, much lower!

Well see, it’s too early to bet the bank that this virus is not as impactful statistically as the media claims.

Things we are doing are still worthwhile because this is a new virus that we don’t have antibodies for it and it could mutate into something either more benign or lethal. If we are smart about this and handle it with care, and keep hammering at it, the end impact could be minimal from an entire US population mortality rate measurement.

So, please don’t think 3% of the entire US (or world) population is going to die at the end of 2020. That prediction just doesn’t add up versus the known datasets from China!

A lot of the virus mortality impact in the US depends on using hotels, malls, gyms, any large areas for patient areas with beds that can be used for larger cities in California and New York. We need all folks to step and help our larger city citizens in any way possible. We also need the elderly and those Americans with existing at heath conditions to be quarantined or separated as much as possible from the bulk of society for the next few weeks (or month). Such a separation will enable help them to get service from the medical community if they get the virus later (hopefully they don’t get it at all). I suggested an approach called “phased reducing” (or phased diminishing) the virus that I think had merit earlier and still might be of value.

Thanks, be careful,

Don

Can we beat Coronavirus by Phase Reducing the viral spread?

Okay, this is an approach that I have not heard before, but what if we take a “Phase Reducing” approach to reduce the coronavirus spread? I like to call it “Phase Diminishing” the spread.

You are probably thinking… “What the hell is Phase Reducing the coronavirus?”

Concept of Phase Reducing – All US locations (or anywhere in the world), get a voluntary group of the population (ideally the most healthy), isolate them in hotels, large gyms or large isolated fully functional buildings (hell, even malls), intelligently infect this voluntary group all at once simultaneously across the entire country. Then provide and monitor this group with medicine and healthcare workers to treat them when needed to minimize fatalities. As the group recovers and the virus aren’t detected via testing, release them and send them back to work. Repeat, doing the same with the next phase of volunteers.

Exceptions to the Phase Dimishing idea

For the most “in risk” groups (people with preexisting issues, and the elderly), don’t even try the phase reducing process, it’s too risky to try, instead wait for better medical medicines or vaccines or hope the virus fizzles out. There are flaws with this approach, like uniformity, training and the like, but it’s better than nothing and we don’t go into a deep recession or depression.

Another issue might be the scale of the process, this might be easier to implement in smaller communities versus huge cities like New York City. Still, even at a smaller level, there might be value in this process because these smaller locations will become strong virus-resistant areas that could prevent spread elsewhere. Kind of like gaps that the virus can’t spread through easily if at all.

Peace and take care,

Don

How The Coronavirus Should Affect the United States

Coronavirus Viewpoint and Known Statistic With Known Datasets

At this stage in time, China and South Korea both has the coronavirus in a manageable form. These two countries (China being the supposed point of origin), were impacted more dramatic initially because they are geographically next door neighbors to each other. While the coronavirus still exists in these countries, both countries have dramatically lowered their infection growth rates. I see no reason that the US and other countries will not have a similar outcome.

While this COVID-19 improvement in China, S. Korea, and the world, it will still have to run its course. That said, it’s not as threatening as the bubonic plague or even the Spanish Flu. With the Spanish Flu, it was highly impactful on total mortality numbers because of the overlap and economic aftereffects of World War I. Pandemics are a very serious deal (check out this article on the worst 5 pandemics, it’s worth a look to provide perspective on then vs today), but today we have science that strips away the supernatural old beliefs about such outbreaks (no bloodletting to get out the evil demons for the US). Such outbreak causes are not unknown or invisible to us today because of the power of technology. We know that outbreaks are either a transmittable virus or bacteria, and we know how to both prevent it, lessen the symptoms, treat it and eventually having a vaccine for it. Even now, drug companies have drugs that are somewhat effective as a treatment of the coronavirus, but not approved yet by FDA. The FDA being cautious to approve treatments and vaccines is positive, although it doesn’t seem that way on the surface.

The first highly impacted countries seem to have had significant contact with China in one form or another. Italy is highly impacted because of a high population density (about 60 million versus 40 million people in Canada) and Italy has a significant Chinese immigration influx (2nd highest group to migrate to Italy 250k in 2019).

Mortality rates for affected citizens in Italy (and France too) both have longer lifespans (in 80s age range) and a higher percentage of elderly in their country versus others. Compound this by their culture of living with their kids as they get older (or maybe even all along), then statistically while their high mortality rate is incredibly sad, it’s not that surprising.

Reasons United States should fare better against the coronavirus (COVID-19)

  1. The United States had more time to observe the impact in China, this gives us a higher reaction time and more options for the virus once it hit the US.
  2. Creative solutions and innovations are being aggressively explored within the United States giving us the advantage of seeing what is working in the earliest impacted countries, and frankly what is not working in those countries.
  3. The United States (excluding major cities like California and New York) has a small population density that countries like Italy, South Korea, and France.
  4. There are plenty of treatments that might already exist that could be used (read about hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir and Kevzara, and numerous vaccines being tested (Moderna and Gilead being some of the leading candidates). Other FDA approved treatments could be used to indirectly reduce the symptoms to prevent deaths are being considered too. Such MedTech solutions could really take the bite out of coronavirus impact in the US, eventually making it a non-issue.
  5. Spring is hitting in the United States, while nobody is truly sure of the effect of the warmer weather, historically it has helped with other diseases. That is why it’s rare to get a cold in the summer (and this virus is from the same viral family as the cold, so while we are not sure, it does seem likely spring will help).
  6. The US as a whole has a culture that slows the spread of COVID-19 because younger generations don’t live with their parents compared to other countries, and have lower individual counts per house than other countries, and larger average houses sizes (Australia is #1, the US is #2). The US keeps there environments cleaner. US hygiene routines (we wash our hands and take showers more often than most countries) are better on average too.
  7. The United States has one of the best medical industries in the world including the best medical technology (MedTech) and capacity.

Okay, I could go on and on about the advantages we have in the United States to fight the COVID-19 virus. I truly think that aside from Billionaires in the media predicting doom and gloom, things should be considered rationally and using existing data-sets provided from earlier inflicted countries for predictive analysis. If you do want to listen to a billionaire assessment (whom as a group are not any more qualified to assess this pandemic than you or I) listen to Warren Buffett, who has time and time again proven that he is within the top 1% in intelligence along with wealth accumulation. Remember wealth and intelligence, while correlated, is not highly correlated. Warren Buffett is both a genius in intelligence and wealth!

I’m sure that time will show that statistically, the US is going to be more like Australia than Italy in their ratio of total deaths caused by COVID-19 versus the entire US population at the conclusion of the coronavirus pandemic. I just hope we don’t go overboard by shutting down the entire country for something that I think will not be lethal to 99% of the US population. Yes, we all have a good high probability to get it, but it wouldn’t be as lethal at the media will lead you to believe! So far the statistics are showing that 81% of the confirmed folks that get it have mild to moderate symptoms. So that means that the “not confirmed” population who get it and just think they have the normal flu or cold, are not counted in that statistic!

Surprisingly as I type this the president is communicating a lot of the exact same things that I’m mentioning above…

Honestly, this is not the end of the world, and I think history will show this is not that impactful from a lethal perspective.

Unfortunately, economically, we’re going to take a hit in the short term (I’m guessing it will take 6 months to 1.5 years for the economy to recover and get back up to pre-coronavirus panic levels). The federal government is setting up financial relief for a quick economic recovery though, so I’m hoping for the best!

During this time, I’m buying stock in small chunks slowly because of free trades that most financial companies (brokers) provide!

Take care, take precautions, but don’t freak out!

Don