Why I’m not Afraid of the Coronavirus COVID-19

The coronavirus (COVID-19) is not good, that’s a given, but for the following reasons I’m not worried about it. Call me crazy, but I’m actually investing in downtrodden stocks. Don’t get me wrong, I wish this never happened and I fear for the elderly. It’s a definitely a scare for them, and rightfully so (especially the 80+ crowd and those that might has an existing condition).

Okay, now that I pretty much identified that I hate that this is happening, the following are the reasons that I’m not afraid of this virus and I’m actually participating by investing in a small purchase increments (I call it nibbling) in the stock market.

Reasons not to fear the Coronavirus (COVID-19)

  • According to the site worldometer.com, people under 40 years old have less than a 1/4 of 1 percent chance (.20%) of actually dying from this virus (mortality rate). And of that under 1% group that happen to die from it, most had underlying cardiovascular or other health issues. So the average person under 50 is fine (those in the 50 range only have a 1.3% mortality rate, so again… not too bad). In fact, children that are in the 0 to 9 age group so far have no reported deaths from the virus (according to worldometer.com).
  • I’m betting the statistics are excluding a lot of people that had the virus and beat it without even knowing it. Shoot, in the US, medical practitioners are just getting the COVID-19 testing kits. Even with the medical personnel getting them now, there is a limited supply of the these kits. So there is a great chance that the true mortality rate numbers are most likely less than they appear.
  • Everybody is using China as sample set for the statistics because they have the largest set of case numbers since it’s speculated that China is the point of origin, but their environment is different than ours. Their population behavior, hygiene and overall culture (example, a lot of men supposedly smokes over there) is much different than the culture in the United States and elsewhere.
  • While developed countries have a hard time using the measures China was able to use to control the virus, we also have positives that China (currently) doesn’t have. For example, a lot of us can work from home like google recently announced. We wash our hand more often, use Purell more often, and have cleaner environments and food. The US is not China. Not to say that China hasn’t made great strides over the past 10 years, because they have!
  • Times are different now versus the Spanish Flu days (surprisingly, it’s speculated that the Spanish Flu started in China too). We understand the science behind the way such diseases get spread around and understand both preventative measures (washing hands, etc) and nutritional information to slow that spread. We are also able to enhance our body’s immune system to help aid our recovery if we do get it.
  • It’ll be warmer soon, so people will get vitamin D from the sun, and maybe the ultraviolet rays from the sun will slow down the spread of the virus too.

For all these reasons and more, I’m just not afraid of the virus and perhaps you shouldn’t be either.

I don’t believe I’ve ever seen the stock market drop so quickly. I have to wonder if it would still drop as quick as it has if we still had or would bring back the uptick rule? It seems like such a rule has value in these scary, panic driven times (that’s why it was created in the first place).

So what I’m going now…

I’m taking my emotion out of the equation and buying stock, but in nibbles not large chunks. Back in the old days (like 2 years ago), nibbling wasn’t possible because of brokerage transaction fees. But since those fees are now zero, why not buy small amounts of stock… Shoot, even a $50 dollar investment (or less) is now possible… I personally don’t like to go below $500 dollars, but I would if I were a very young investor just starting out. While the falling knife scenario still might be happening, I’ll still be nibbling away… I guess I’m riding the dip in the stock market downswing. I’m not in a hurry though, I bought some shares on Monday (3/9/2020). Next month, I might buy more shares or if we go much deeper into a bear market (which is a drop of more than 20% from the market high).

No fear!

Don

What if the Coronavirus was a weapon?

Disclaimer… The following is my version of a conspiracy theory. It’s fictional but is still well within the range of true possibilities. Think of the following as if I were writing a fictional (or is it data perceived non-fiction?) plot for a book or movie, below!

Update 4/7/2020: What if it was an attack from multiple countries?

Let’s say Russia and China collaborated to create a biological attack on what they perceive as their common enemies, the US and Europe. To date, both US and Europe have been highly impacted by the Covid-19 virus according to the data. We’ve heard that the Russians are using Twitter and other social platforms to create discord and confusion in the US among racial groups, social classes, and now even age groups. China may be doing the same too through tik tok and other platforms too.

Both China and Russia will emerge as a superpower in the world now. China because their impact is controlled and minimal, and Russia because they to date have a firmer control over the virus. Both have very low deaths associated with the virus.

Counterpoints: Even within the US, certain groups pit its member against other groups. Some groups that were created to advance a certain segment of the population are actually holding their members back because they are focusing on a period in history instead of what the reality is in the present. Time literally waits for no one. So it’s hard to criticize a country for taking advantage of something that the government parties are doing against each other in the open public. China and Russia will gain from the slowness of the US and Europe to recover. I have no counterpoint for Economic gains with respect to China and Russia, they will benefit.

Update 3/23/2020: Wow, to date Russia only has around 300+ total infections, and I think they said they have 1 death from it (a woman who was 79 years old).

On top of that statistic, they are spreading false information saying that the coronavirus is a biological weapon that the US, Chinese, or UK military created. Considering that their infections are trivial in comparison to the rest of the world (mostly northern countries), that makes me think of that old saying ” The lady doth protest too much, methinks “. Perhaps Mother Russia really did create this as a biological weapon, especially if you consider all of the other things I talk about below.

Update 3/15/2020: What if Russia created a mildly lethal but contagious virus as a weapon?

Let’s even say that they have immunized their citizens for the past few years now secretly? Interesting, in this hypothetical play-out, in reality, they have cast themselves as such a character by damaging the world economy by dumping oil in the market, in an attempt to eliminate other oil suppliers which in turn could have a greater impact on the world economy and deepen a potential longer-term worldwide recession or depression, during this viral crisis. What normal country would wage such a tactic unless they had already planned it out as a strategy? Think about it, Russia is not reporting their Coronavirus statistics (maybe because they are minimally impacted by design?) and they are waging an oil war against the US indirectly.

Who better to be cast as Ernst Stavro Blofeld that Putin The Brain, from “Pinky and the Brain” would be so proud of Mr. Putin efforts! All joking aside, I respect Putin in many ways… probably because folks think he’s an intj like my type. INTJ’s are often misunderstood, but that said, if he takes over the world before I do… I’ll be pissed!

While the above sounds like something out of a “Mission Impossible” movie, it does seem strange that Russia’s actions seem to communicate that they don’t really care about the world… That aside, I personally think that the COVID-19 virus is just part of living on earth, and while it’s causing a near-term panic, will be under control in a few months to a year because of the reason I specify below.

Okay, looks like I’m not as original in thinking, as I thought. I’m in good company at least 🙂

Original Post:

I think a lot of bizarre things are in the realm of possibilities that I’m afraid of communicating out because I don’t want such ideas communicated. So unfortunately for me, I keep a lot of different ideas to myself… A strategically planned stealth ware via a planned and controlled virus outbreak is one of them… Below is one such thought that I had, but it’s just an idea.

What if a Corona-like virus was actually created by a rogue country, and part of their plan was to stage a local outbreak that is mild and enables their population to build resistance, but secretly they have deployment methods in all major cities and will discreetly release a more impactful, deadly stain or strains (let’s say with a 60%+ mortality rate) in other countries (including their allies)? Such a war strategy would be that they purposely released the communicated but mild version of the virus locally that would have a small but notable effect initially and a correspondingly small mortality rate so the rest of the world says and thinks “oh well, it a virus let’s deal with it together”… all the while the rogue country would then start to deploy more deadly strains elsewhere in the world with a more damaging impact. After the mortality rate is realized, the rogue country would then claiming that the virus must be mutating into a more lethal form naturally. Then in parallel, the domestic strain in the rogue country enables its citizen to become immune to the more lethal strains, so when the lethal strains hit them, the population is not impacted.

Such a strategy could enable them to either be the dominant population on earth or at least control the world from an unchallenged stance. You could consider this a war tactic without anyone realizing the war was actually taking place.

Why wage a war this way? There is a saying “All is fair in love and war“… Such a war could stealthily be waged against the world, and all the other non-attacking countries in the world may not even realize that the battle is even taking place.

Why would a rogue country use this tactic? Many reasons actually, the viral weapon yielding country probably hopes to avoid a nuclear war, nobody (or country) that has normal intelligence thinks that a nuclear war is a win for anyone unless your society lives underground already (which has unforeseen and unpredictable challenges) because of nuclear fallout and other horrors of nuclear weapons. Another reason is that it would be a low-cost and high gain (or low risk and high reward) type of war because deployment would be cheap and grow without associated cost in other countries after the initial deployment. As the unwary countries are being attacked, their local population would implode to just a small subset of the previous population size, you now have a huge landmass to populate and that land’s natural and intellectual resources left behind. A third reason for the aggressor country would be low casualties… Yeah, there might be an initial hit to the aggressor country’s population, but even after the initial outbreak, the country would push out lesser strains to itself with practically no moralities statistically so that rest of the attacking country’s population is minimally impacted.

Things that I didn’t think of… Let’s pretend the aggressor country is China in my fictional scenario… Well, they produce a large portion of the world supply of drugs and other critical products (governments of the world should take note and act on this), there could be even more deaths indirectly caused by the virus outbreak in the target countries because of lack of supply of other needed drugs and goods.

I guess my thought on this is kind of like the movie Resident Evil, but instead of a company-created and deployed virus, it’s at the country level, and without the character, Alice…

Just to put the Coronavirus in context, the Spanish Flu (also called the Flu of 1918) had a mortality rate of 2.5%. The coronavirus statistics from China put their virus fatality rate at somewhere between 2 to 4%, but Iranian doctors are reporting that a fatality rate as high as 10% in their country. Hopefully, history will show that the Spanish Flu had worse casualties because we have techniques to fight and stop the spread of viruses and flues, unlike in 1918.

Hoping for the best!

Don

Your Lifestyle and the Way you Live your Life is More Important Than Money

I’m guilty of neglecting my body, health and overall life for years.  Luckily, my physical state and mental awareness has now changed for the better.

New Total Lifestyle

I went from daily crunching and projecting financial scenarios, to just occasionally checking and readjusting my investment portfolio every so often.  I’ve evolved to this state because of a few tweaks to my lifestyle changes.

Tweaks to my Life, Lifestyle and Beliefs:

  1. I now realize that money doesn’t make me happy, but that money does provide additional options in life.  Unfortunately, living so frugally for so long has made my frugality mindset habitual in nature, and at first, very hard to change.  I’m still not a spendthrift, but I do spend more on things the bring my life value.
  2. Realizing that my body and mind are more connected than I realized.  Since I started working out, I now think and move better in mental and physical activities.
  3. By working out, I now have strength, and having physical strength gives me confidence.  By having confidence, I now approach things differently than when I was out of shape.  So the saying “Fortune Favors the Bold” is correct, but to be bold (or brave), it helps to be strong both mentally and physically… and that’s where I believe I am now.
  4. Since I’m bolder, I have no problem talking to people who I use to perceive as being special or unapproachable.  If you are the most beautiful person on earth or a CEO, to me, you are just another guy/gal and I will treat you as such. Without hesitation or acknowledgement that you are different because to me you are not.  It’s kind of funny, but I didn’t even realize that I was “that guy” who gave such “shining” people extra status…  oh well, lesson learned.
  5. I realize that my happiness scope of control is more important than I originally believed.  This is a “leading the horse to water, but you can’t make him drink” kind of thought.  I can provide those I care about with tools and advice, but if they don’t listen to what I perceive or fail to believe me, then it’s not my fault when they lose or miss opportunities that I predict or take time to explain..
  6. Just because the media and popular opinion on something says it’s one way… do you own research and come to your own conclusions base on your experience, knowledge and your own experimentation.

Bicep – Improvement

So what have I changed?

  1. I joined two gyms and go to them at least four days a week, for 2 1/2 to 3 hours per workout day.  This is not frugal, since I have the basic equipment I need at home to workout, but there are side perks of the gyms that make it worthwhile to me.
  2. I talk to more people without preconceptions on who or what they are based on their age or status in life.  This have made me a more rounded person with more social options.
  3. I don’t worry about money as much, and while still having an investment strategy… I don’t feel the need to constantly worry about it.  I still manage it, but not daily or even weekly.
  4. I realize that things that make me happy are important too.  I’m here to help others out, but I need to help myself first!

So while I’m a work in progress, I’m very happy about where I am today versus where I was for the past five or so years!  Today, I’m a better version of myself…

Wishing and hoping everyone that reads this, the best!

Don

Why the Expense of Being Healthy is Worth it

The Expense of Being Healthy

The reason so many people are unhealthy isn’t a lack of knowledge. For many, it isn’t even a lack of motivation. For many, the reason that getting healthy feels so unattainable is just how expensive doing things the healthy way can be.

Think about it. Fresh produce costs easily three times as much per pound as the frozen or canned versions of the same fruits and vegetables. Workout gear and gym membership prices are astronomical and, even with so much effort into making healthcare more affordable, seeing a doctor can cost as much as a month’s pay (if not more) after all of the tests, office visits, and prescriptions are paid for.

It’s difficult to justify these expenses if you don’t feel like you’re sick or like you’re out of shape. According to the Huffington Post, a person can save more than $500 per year choosing the cheaper and less healthy varieties of foods. The problem is that most of the time, problems develop very slowly. Nobody has a heart attack out of nowhere. The body gets worse and worse until a heart attack (or some other huge problem) is the only thing that can happen. And trust us when we tell you, treating a major problem is going to cost far more than it would have cost you to work steadily at your health over time.  Plus, is it really worth it some day be wealthy without being healthy enough to enjoy it?

BusyOfficeMan

It’s also worth noting that the chemicals used to preserve those less healthy foods are one of the biggest exacerbators of health issues. So, in effect, you are literally making yourself sicker and costing yourself money in future medical and recovery expenses by going to “cheap” route now.  It’s a bit counter-intuitive, but very true all the same!

This doesn’t mean that we don’t feel your pain. It’s difficult to pay more than you think you can afford now in an effort to help yourself later. For example, converting your standard “chair in a cube” work environment to a standing desk is better for your overall health and Investing in standing desks is more cost efficient than paying for physical therapy to correct that permanent slouch you’ve developed from sitting all day.

Still, even though you know it isn’t a huge investment, when you’re living paycheck to paycheck, coming up with $1400 for a desk seems daunting. But $1400, when you compare it to the nearly $40,000 it costs to cover the expenses for treating a cardiac event, doesn’t feel like such a big deal does it? Especially, since you can save up over time for a proper standing desk while using crates and stands on top of your existing desk in the meantime. Or, even better, ask your employer to cover the cost for you!

It is also worth noting that the most expensive options do not always have to be the ones you choose when you decide to get healthy. It seems contradictory but, while buying the least expensive food and health options often leads to worse health overall, buying the most expensive options does not necessarily guarantee you the best health. A lot of the times, that added expense is to pay for branding, not nutrients or quality.

So how do you tell the difference? How do you get healthy without falling for branding or bankrupting yourself?

Go Slowly

This is particularly important when changing your eating habits or starting a new workout routine. There are some who believe that, in addition to expense, one reason that switching to a healthy diet is so difficult is that people are conditioned to like the cheaper stuff!  So the better for you healthy stuff tastes strange or even bad the first few times someone eats it. That said, by changing out parts of your diet for healthier ingredients slowly over time can make the transition easier and eventually your taste will switch too.

The same is true with a workout routine. You’re not going to go from arm chair quarterback to running a marathon overnight. Build up your strength and stamina over time, through programs like couch to 5k, etc.

Use What You Have

You don’t need a bunch of fancy equipment to cook healthy meals and you don’t need an expensive gym membership or the fanciest workout gear to get in shape. Use what you have on you! Use your current cookware and, as they wears out, replace them with a better (and, yes, typically more expensive) models that will last longer. For working out, you’ll need some really good shoes. Beyond that, your existing sweats or a t-shirt and shorts will do just fine for now.

Instead of trying to find a cheap gym, use one of the hundreds of workout and training apps that are available to help you get into shape in the comfort of your own home (or local park). We’ve already mentioned Couch to 5k. The Gorilla Workout is another popular option.

Remember: spending money now to literally save money and live longer later isn’t a silly thing to do. It’s a worthy expense!

Thanks,

Chase