Update 3/27/2020, US just now confirmed they have more cases than China, but probably because the US has done more testing than China… People freak out because of “new” cases, but really it’s just that we’ve tested more, so more people are detected. Still, I wish the US would do more like suggesting to citizens that they wear masks and test and approve meds more quickly for usage.

I’ve heard people say that the mortality rate of the coronavirus (covid-19 virus) is somewhere between 3 and 4%. They say that the mortality rate of coronavirus is much worse than the 1918 influenza Pandemic (also called the Spanish Flu). This claim is incorrect, sort of. I’ll explain why I believe that the impact will be well less than 1% and while concerning, not as bad as the media will have you believe.

Let me start by saying that the dataset from the Spanish Flu is weak. I’ve seen worldwide mortality rates anywhere from .6% to 3%. The CDC put the worldwide mortality rate at 1% (50m out of 500m), and estimate the US mortality rate was .5% to .65% of the entire us population.

First, the true mortality rate of the coronavirus vs US entire population should be less than .5% (1 in 200)

The United States is still developing its coronavirus datasets, but we missed the first cases so we are not starting from the beginning. I’m sure there were thousands of people that had the virus and beat it before anyone had any idea what it was. I’m sure most people that had it just thought it was the flu. I know a paramedic that has talked to healthcare people (mainly nurses and few doctors) and they said that they had a high number of people come into the hospital last year, believing they had the flu, but they tested negative (meaning they didn’t have the flu) after testing was applied. So the US and the entire world is not starting at square one with this virus.

I believe the Chinese statistics that they have provided the world (literally, thank China for the data)! Looking at the Chinese datasets, and making postulations from their data metrics versus their entire population, the Chinese mortality rate could be significantly less than .1% for their 2020 year! To be totally honest, when I number crunch their data, I’m getting a mortality ratio that is between .001% and .002% for the Chinese entire population in 2020, but that’s pretty optimistic… but possible. This number is a far cry from the mortality rate of the Spanish Flu.

So the US could have numbers even better than China, but it will be close. China today is not China of 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago). They have made incredible progress in all areas. So, the US mortality rate versus the entire US population could be less than .1% too, and maybe much less. So we will not have a mortality rate higher than the Spanish Flu, and most likely will have a mortality rate much, much lower!

Well see, it’s too early to bet the bank that this virus is not as impactful statistically as the media claims.

Things we are doing are still worthwhile because this is a new virus that we don’t have antibodies for it and it could mutate into something either more benign or lethal. If we are smart about this and handle it with care, and keep hammering at it, the end impact could be minimal from an entire US population mortality rate measurement.

So, please don’t think 3% of the entire US (or world) population is going to die at the end of 2020. That prediction just doesn’t add up versus the known datasets from China!

A lot of the virus mortality impact in the US depends on using hotels, malls, gyms, any large areas for patient areas with beds that can be used for larger cities in California and New York. We need all folks to step and help our larger city citizens in any way possible. We also need the elderly and those Americans with existing at heath conditions to be quarantined or separated as much as possible from the bulk of society for the next few weeks (or month). Such a separation will enable help them to get service from the medical community if they get the virus later (hopefully they don’t get it at all). I suggested an approach called “phased reducing” (or phased diminishing) the virus that I think had merit earlier and still might be of value.

Thanks, be careful,

Don